Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is an American global insurance brokerage and risk management services firm headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $292.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.61% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AJG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2021
End date: July 22, 2024
a = 4.5906
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.43%
April 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y346)
= Exp(a + b × X346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5906 + 0.0006 × 505 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.9689)
= $143.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y346)
= Exp(a + b × X346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5906 + 0.0006 × 505 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.7913)
= $120.46
July 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5906 + 0.0006 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.6574)
= $286.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5906 + 0.0006 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.4798)
= $239.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $292.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: October 24, 2024
a = 4.0425
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.85%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0425 + 0.0009 × 1,485 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.4604)
= $235.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,023)
= Exp(a + b × X1,023 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0425 + 0.0009 × 1,485 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.3395)
= $208.42
October 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0425 + 0.0009 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.7484)
= $313.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0425 + 0.0009 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(5.6275)
= $277.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.61% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.