Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is an American global insurance brokerage and risk management services firm headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $331.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.58% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AJG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2021
End date: July 22, 2024
a = 4.6777
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.43%
April 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0006 × 346 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.9649)
= $143.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0006 × 346 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.7873)
= $119.98
July 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0006 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.6534)
= $285.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6777 + 0.0006 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.4758)
= $238.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $331.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 4.5681
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.24%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y511)
= Exp(a + b × X511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5681 + 0.0007 × 738 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.1444)
= $171.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y511)
= Exp(a + b × X511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5681 + 0.0007 × 738 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.9768)
= $145.01
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5681 + 0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.8684)
= $353.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5681 + 0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.7008)
= $299.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.58% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.