Stock Price Trends

Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is an American global insurance brokerage and risk management services firm headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
  • AJG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $345.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.66 (4.75%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.44% per annum.
  • AJG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AJG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 8, 2021
End date: July 22, 2024

a = 4.6628

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0444

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.43%

April 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6628 + 0.0006 × 372 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.9649)
= $143.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6628 + 0.0006 × 372 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.7873)
= $119.98

July 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6628 + 0.0006 × 1,573 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.6534)
= $285.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,573 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6628 + 0.0006 × 1,573 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(5.4758)
= $238.84

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.27% per annum.
  • AJG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $345.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.66 (4.75%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.5541

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0419

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.26%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y528)
= Exp(a + b × X528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5541 + 0.0007 × 764 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.1455)
= $171.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y528)
= Exp(a + b × X528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5541 + 0.0007 × 764 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.9778)
= $145.15

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5541 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.8504)
= $347.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5541 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.6826)
= $293.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.44% per annum.
  • AJG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.