Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG)
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a leading global insurance brokerage and risk management services firm, headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois. With a robust presence in insurance markets across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, AJG specializes in delivering tailored risk management solutions to a diverse clientele, including businesses, governments, and various institutions. The company has demonstrated consistent growth through strategic acquisitions and organic development, positioning itself as a key player in the competitive insurance landscape. Its commitment to excellence in service and innovation solidifies AJG's reputation as a trusted partner for comprehensive risk management.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.57% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $248.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.24 (7.89%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.18% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AJG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 18, 2025
End date: October 28, 2025
a = 6.8169
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0348
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0348) – 1
= 14.95%
February 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8169 + -0.0006 × 1,565 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.8992)
= $364.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8169 + -0.0006 × 1,565 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.7598)
= $317.29
October 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8169 + -0.0006 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.7402)
= $311.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8169 + -0.0006 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.6008)
= $270.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.57% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $248.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.24 (7.89%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 3, 2025
End date: November 5, 2025
a = 18.9451
b = -0.0074
s = 0.0226
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0074) – 1
= -93.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0226) – 1
= 9.48%
October 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.9451 + -0.0074 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.8086)
= $333.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.9451 + -0.0074 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.7180)
= $304.30
November 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.9451 + -0.0074 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.5659)
= $261.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.9451 + -0.0074 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.4753)
= $238.71
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.18% per annum.
- AJG price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.