Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)
Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.88% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $62.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.74% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 7.0257
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1731
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1731) – 1
= 99.83%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y584)
= Exp(a + b × X584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 847 + 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(6.0314)
= $416.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y584)
= Exp(a + b × X584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 847 – 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(5.3391)
= $208.33
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(4.4837)
= $88.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(3.7914)
= $44.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.88% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $62.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 9.6498
b = -0.0031
s = 0.1074
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1074) – 1
= 53.67%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(5.0226)
= $151.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(4.5930)
= $98.79
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(4.2073)
= $67.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(3.7777)
= $43.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.74% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.