Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)
Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.71% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $58.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.36% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 7.0572
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1752
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1752) – 1
= 101.51%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 873 + 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(6.0330)
= $416.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 873 – 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(5.3323)
= $206.92
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(4.5342)
= $93.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(3.8335)
= $46.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.71% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $58.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 10.4501
b = -0.0035
s = 0.1064
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1064) – 1
= 53.03%
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(5.0226)
= $151.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(4.5971)
= $99.20
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(4.2335)
= $68.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(3.8080)
= $45.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.36% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.