Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)
Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.30% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $45.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.39% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 7.0083
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1727
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1727) – 1
= 99.52%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 821 + 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(6.0375)
= $418.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 821 – 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(5.3467)
= $209.91
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(4.4310)
= $84.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(3.7403)
= $42.11
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.30% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $45.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 9.5206
b = -0.0031
s = 0.1049
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1049) – 1
= 52.16%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,536 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(5.0152)
= $150.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,536 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(4.5954)
= $99.03
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(4.1341)
= $62.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(3.7144)
= $41.03
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.39% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.