Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)
Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.25% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $63.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.69% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 7.0914
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1778
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1778) – 1
= 103.66%
July 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y630)
= Exp(a + b × X630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0914 + -0.0016 × 912 + 2 × 0.1778)
= Exp(6.0314)
= $416.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y630)
= Exp(a + b × X630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0914 + -0.0016 × 912 – 2 × 0.1778)
= Exp(5.3201)
= $204.41
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0914 + -0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1778)
= Exp(4.6159)
= $101.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0914 + -0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1778)
= Exp(3.9046)
= $49.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.25% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $63.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 12.2960
b = -0.0045
s = 0.1051
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1051) – 1
= 52.23%
August 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2960 + -0.0045 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(5.0259)
= $152.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2960 + -0.0045 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(4.6057)
= $100.05
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2960 + -0.0045 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(4.2869)
= $72.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2960 + -0.0045 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(3.8667)
= $47.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.69% per annum.
- ENPH price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.