Stock Price Trends

Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)

Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.30% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $45.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.39% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.0083

b = -0.0016

s = 0.1727

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1727) – 1
= 99.52%

July 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 821 + 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(6.0375)
= $418.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 821 – 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(5.3467)
= $209.91

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(4.4310)
= $84.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0083 + -0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1727)
= Exp(3.7403)
= $42.11

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 44.30% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $45.75 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 9.5206

b = -0.0031

s = 0.1049

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1049) – 1
= 52.16%

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,536 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(5.0152)
= $150.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,536 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(4.5954)
= $99.03

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(4.1341)
= $62.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5206 + -0.0031 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1049)
= Exp(3.7144)
= $41.03

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.39% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.