Stock Price Trends

Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)

Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.71% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $58.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.36% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 7.0572

b = -0.0016

s = 0.1752

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1752) – 1
= 101.51%

July 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 873 + 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(6.0330)
= $416.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 873 – 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(5.3323)
= $206.92

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(4.5342)
= $93.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0572 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1752)
= Exp(3.8335)
= $46.22

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.71% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $58.65 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 10.4501

b = -0.0035

s = 0.1064

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1064) – 1
= 53.03%

July 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(5.0226)
= $151.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(4.5971)
= $99.20

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(4.2335)
= $68.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.4501 + -0.0035 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(3.8080)
= $45.06

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.36% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.