Stock Price Trends

Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)

Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.88% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $62.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.53% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 7.0242

b = -0.0016

s = 0.1729

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1729) – 1
= 99.72%

July 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 846 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0242 + -0.0016 × 846 + 2 × 0.1729)
= Exp(6.0312)
= $416.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 846 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0242 + -0.0016 × 846 – 2 × 0.1729)
= Exp(5.3394)
= $208.39

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0242 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1729)
= Exp(4.4818)
= $88.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0242 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1729)
= Exp(3.7900)
= $44.26

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.88% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $62.39 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 9.6175

b = -0.0031

s = 0.1076

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1076) – 1
= 53.81%

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6175 + -0.0031 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(5.0215)
= $151.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6175 + -0.0031 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(4.5910)
= $98.59

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6175 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(4.2078)
= $67.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6175 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(3.7773)
= $43.70

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.53% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.