Stock Price Trends

Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH)

Enphase Energy is an American energy technology company headquartered in Fremont, California. Enphase designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.88% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $62.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.74% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ENPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 27, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 7.0257

b = -0.0016

s = 0.1731

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1731) – 1
= 99.83%

July 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y584)
= Exp(a + b × X584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 847 + 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(6.0314)
= $416.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y584)
= Exp(a + b × X584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 847 – 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(5.3391)
= $208.33

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(4.4837)
= $88.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0257 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1731)
= Exp(3.7914)
= $44.32

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.88% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $62.05 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 9.6498

b = -0.0031

s = 0.1074

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1074) – 1
= 53.67%

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(5.0226)
= $151.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,075)
= Exp(a + b × X1,075 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(4.5930)
= $98.79

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(4.2073)
= $67.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6498 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1074)
= Exp(3.7777)
= $43.72

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.74% per annum.
  • ENPH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.