KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
KLA Corporation is a capital equipment company based in Milpitas, California. It supplies process control and yield management systems for the semiconductor industry and other related nanoelectronics industries. The company's products and services are intended for all phases of wafer, reticle, integrated circuit (IC) and packaging production, from research and development to final volume manufacturing.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.08% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $673.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.69 (1.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.37% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: January 13, 2025
a = 8.3854
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0608
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0608) – 1
= 27.55%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,506 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3854 + -0.0011 × 1,506 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(6.8500)
= $943.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,506 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3854 + -0.0011 × 1,506 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(6.6066)
= $739.97
January 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3854 + -0.0011 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(6.5826)
= $722.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3854 + -0.0011 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(6.3392)
= $566.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.08% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $673.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.69 (1.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 5.0869
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0494
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0494) – 1
= 21.84%
October 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + 0.0008 × 1,660 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(6.5628)
= $708.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + 0.0008 × 1,660 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(6.3653)
= $581.33
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + 0.0008 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(6.6972)
= $810.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0869 + 0.0008 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(6.4997)
= $664.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.37% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.