KLA-Tencor Corporation (KLAC)
KLA Corporation is a capital equipment company based in Milpitas, California. It supplies process control and yield management systems for the semiconductor industry and other related nanoelectronics industries. The company's products and services are intended for all phases of wafer, reticle, integrated circuit (IC) and packaging production, from research and development to final volume manufacturing.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.95% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $615.66 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $170.69 (21.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.74% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KLAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: August 30, 2024
a = 4.2876
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0771
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0771) – 1
= 36.13%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y699)
= Exp(a + b × X699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,015 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2876 + 0.0014 × 1,015 + 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(5.8504)
= $347.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y699)
= Exp(a + b × X699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,015 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2876 + 0.0014 × 1,015 – 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(5.5420)
= $255.18
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2876 + 0.0014 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(6.8635)
= $956.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2876 + 0.0014 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0771)
= Exp(6.5550)
= $702.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.95% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $615.66 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $170.69 (21.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 9.1315
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0568
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0568) – 1
= 25.50%
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0014 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(6.8599)
= $953.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0014 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(6.6328)
= $759.60
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(6.6277)
= $755.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1315 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0568)
= Exp(6.4006)
= $602.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.74% per annum.
- KLAC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.