Applied Materials Inc (AMAT)
Applied Materials, Inc. is an American corporation that supplies equipment, services and software for the manufacture of semiconductor (integrated circuit) chips for electronics, flat panel displays for computers, smartphones and televisions, and solar products. The company also supplies equipment to produce coatings for flexible electronics, packaging and other applications. The company is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, in Silicon Valley.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.63% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $169.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $64.13 (27.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.52% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 2.9893
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0752
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0752) – 1
= 35.07%
August 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,010 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9893 + 0.0014 × 1,010 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(4.5854)
= $98.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,010 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9893 + 0.0014 × 1,010 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(4.2848)
= $72.59
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9893 + 0.0014 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(5.5832)
= $265.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9893 + 0.0014 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(5.2826)
= $196.88
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.63% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $169.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $64.13 (27.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.7081
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0665
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0665) – 1
= 30.46%
May 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7081 + -0.0014 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.5842)
= $266.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7081 + -0.0014 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.3183)
= $204.04
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7081 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.3252)
= $205.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7081 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.0593)
= $157.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.52% per annum.
- AMAT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.