Teradyne Inc (TER)
Teradyne, Inc. is an American automatic test equipment (ATE) designer and manufacturer based in North Reading, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.42% per annum.
- TER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $102.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.90% per annum.
- TER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.21 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TER price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2020
End date: March 5, 2024
a = 4.9409
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1329
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1329) – 1
= 70.13%
November 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9409 + -0.0003 × 362 + 2 × 0.1329)
= Exp(5.1085)
= $165.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9409 + -0.0003 × 362 – 2 × 0.1329)
= Exp(4.5771)
= $97.23
March 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9409 + -0.0003 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.1329)
= Exp(4.7820)
= $119.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9409 + -0.0003 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.1329)
= Exp(4.2506)
= $70.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.42% per annum.
- TER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $102.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 3.9606
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1073
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1073) – 1
= 53.60%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9606 + 0.0005 × 933 + 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(4.6392)
= $103.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9606 + 0.0005 × 933 – 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(4.2100)
= $67.36
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9606 + 0.0005 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(5.0698)
= $159.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9606 + 0.0005 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(4.6406)
= $103.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.90% per annum.
- TER price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.21 (2.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.