Onto Innovation Inc (ONTO)
Onto Innovation Inc. is dedicated to the design, development, manufacture and support of process control tools that perform macrodefect inspection and metrology, lithography systems, and process control analytical software worldwide. The company is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.37% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $121.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.84 (2.28%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.16% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ONTO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 7.2943
b = -0.0012
s = 0.1060
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1060) – 1
= 52.83%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,030)
= Exp(a + b × X1,030 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2943 + -0.0012 × 1,496 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(5.6534)
= $285.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,030)
= Exp(a + b × X1,030 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,496 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2943 + -0.0012 × 1,496 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(5.2292)
= $186.65
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2943 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(5.2459)
= $189.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2943 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1060)
= Exp(4.8217)
= $124.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.37% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $121.34 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.84 (2.28%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 19.9242
b = -0.0083
s = 0.0637
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0083) – 1
= -95.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0637) – 1
= 29.03%
January 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(19.9242 + -0.0083 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(5.5297)
= $252.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(19.9242 + -0.0083 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(5.2748)
= $195.35
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(19.9242 + -0.0083 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(4.9074)
= $135.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(19.9242 + -0.0083 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0637)
= Exp(4.6524)
= $104.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 95.16% per annum.
- ONTO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.