Stock Price Trends

MKS Instruments Inc (MKSI)

MKS Instruments, Inc. provides instruments, systems, subsystems, and process control solutions that measure, monitor, deliver, analyze, power, and control critical parameters of manufacturing processes globally. The company is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.30% per annum.
  • MKSI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $108.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.90% per annum.
  • MKSI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MKSI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: September 30, 2024

a = 3.7184

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1332

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1332) – 1
= 70.36%

September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7184 + 0.0006 × 1,030 + 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(4.6211)
= $101.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y709)
= Exp(a + b × X709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,030 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7184 + 0.0006 × 1,030 – 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(4.0883)
= $59.64

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7184 + 0.0006 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(5.0820)
= $161.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7184 + 0.0006 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(4.5492)
= $94.56

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.30% per annum.
  • MKSI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $108.38 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 15, 2024
End date: November 6, 2024

a = 7.8516

b = -0.0018

s = 0.0528

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0528) – 1
= 23.53%

May 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8516 + -0.0018 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(5.0317)
= $153.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8516 + -0.0018 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(4.8203)
= $124.01

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8516 + -0.0018 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(4.7191)
= $112.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8516 + -0.0018 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(4.5078)
= $90.72

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.90% per annum.
  • MKSI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.