Stock Price Trends

Veralto Corporation (VLTO)

Veralto Corporation provides water supply services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.15% per annum.
  • VLTO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $103.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.16% per annum.
  • VLTO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VLTO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.9391

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0267

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.27%

August 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9391 + -0.0007 × 316 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.7757)
= $118.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y217)
= Exp(a + b × X217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9391 + -0.0007 × 316 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6689)
= $106.58

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9391 + -0.0007 × 412 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.7099)
= $111.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9391 + -0.0007 × 412 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6030)
= $99.79

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.15% per annum.
  • VLTO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $103.98 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 4, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 5.6839

b = -0.0026

s = 0.0235

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.84%

October 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6839 + -0.0026 × 366 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.7825)
= $119.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6839 + -0.0026 × 366 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.6886)
= $108.71

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6839 + -0.0026 × 412 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.6633)
= $105.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6839 + -0.0026 × 412 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.5694)
= $96.49

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.16% per annum.
  • VLTO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.