ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM)
ABM Industries Incorporated provides integrated facility solutions in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.43% per annum.
- ABM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $55.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.75 (4.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.66% per annum.
- ABM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2024
End date: September 5, 2024
a = 1.4006
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0320
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0320) – 1
= 13.65%
January 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4006 + 0.0015 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(3.7141)
= $41.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4006 + 0.0015 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(3.5861)
= $36.09
September 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4006 + 0.0015 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.0783)
= $59.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4006 + 0.0015 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(3.9504)
= $51.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.43% per annum.
- ABM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $55.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.75 (4.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.3912
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0368
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0368) – 1
= 15.88%
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3912 + 0.0003 × 1,661 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(4.0072)
= $54.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3912 + 0.0003 × 1,661 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(3.8598)
= $47.46
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3912 + 0.0003 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(4.0565)
= $57.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3912 + 0.0003 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0368)
= Exp(3.9091)
= $49.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.66% per annum.
- ABM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.