Stock Price Trends

Healthcare Services Group Inc (HCSG)

Healthcare Services Group, Inc. provides management, administrative, and operational services to the cleaning, laundry, bedding, facility maintenance, and dietary services departments of nursing homes, retirement complexes, rehabilitation centers, and hospitals in the United States. . The company is headquartered in Bensalem, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.96% per annum.
  • HCSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.89% per annum.
  • HCSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCSG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.0385

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0751

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0751) – 1
= 35.04%

September 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0385 + 0.0002 × 1,387 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.4797)
= $11.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0385 + 0.0002 × 1,387 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.1793)
= $8.84

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0385 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.5718)
= $13.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0385 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(2.2715)
= $9.69

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.96% per annum.
  • HCSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $11.36 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.1612

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0559

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0559) – 1
= 25.07%

February 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1612 + -0.0004 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(2.5899)
= $13.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1612 + -0.0004 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(2.3662)
= $10.66

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1612 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(2.4667)
= $11.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1612 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0559)
= Exp(2.2430)
= $9.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.89% per annum.
  • HCSG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.