Stock Price Trends

Rollins Inc (ROL)

Rollins, Inc. is a North American consumer and commercial services company.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.97% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.55 (1.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.01% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 1, 2023
End date: October 4, 2024

a = 2.3471

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0400

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0400) – 1
= 17.37%

September 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3471 + 0.0009 × 1,381 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.6722)
= $39.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y951)
= Exp(a + b × X951 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3471 + 0.0009 × 1,381 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.5121)
= $33.52

October 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3471 + 0.0009 × 1,780 + 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(4.0320)
= $56.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3471 + 0.0009 × 1,780 – 2 × 0.0400)
= Exp(3.8718)
= $48.03

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.97% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.55 (1.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.8964

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0301

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0301) – 1
= 12.78%

December 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8964 + 0.0006 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(3.7944)
= $44.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8964 + 0.0006 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(3.6742)
= $39.42

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8964 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(3.9924)
= $54.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8964 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(3.8722)
= $48.05

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.01% per annum.
  • ROL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.