Target Corporation (TGT)
Target Corporation is an American retail corporation. Their retail formats include the discount store Target, the hypermarket SuperTarget, and small-format stores previously named CityTarget and TargetExpress before being consolidated under the Target branding.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 127.12% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $156.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3,321.82 (95.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.20% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: August 16, 2021
a = 4.0856
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0176
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 127.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0176) – 1
= 7.27%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0856 + 0.0022 × 492 + 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.2264)
= $186.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0856 + 0.0022 × 492 – 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.1562)
= $173.50
August 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0856 + 0.0022 × 635 + 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.5477)
= $256.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0856 + 0.0022 × 635 – 2 × 0.0176)
= Exp(5.4775)
= $239.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 127.12% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $156.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3,321.82 (95.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.5397
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1528
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1528) – 1
= 84.26%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0004 × 492 + 2 × 0.1528)
= Exp(5.6544)
= $285.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y338)
= Exp(a + b × X338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0004 × 492 – 2 × 0.1528)
= Exp(5.0433)
= $154.98
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1528)
= Exp(5.1370)
= $170.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5397 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1528)
= Exp(4.5258)
= $92.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.20% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.