Dollar General Corporation (DG)
Dollar General Corporation is an American chain of variety stores headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.31% per annum.
- DG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $87.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 163.34% per annum.
- DG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.6429
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1430
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1430) – 1
= 77.17%
June 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6429 + -0.0013 × 812 + 2 × 0.1430)
= Exp(5.8900)
= $361.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6429 + -0.0013 × 812 – 2 × 0.1430)
= Exp(5.3181)
= $203.99
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6429 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1430)
= Exp(4.5939)
= $98.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6429 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1430)
= Exp(4.0220)
= $55.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.31% per annum.
- DG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $87.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = -0.4122
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0289
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 163.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0289) – 1
= 12.25%
January 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4122 + 0.0027 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.2853)
= $72.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4122 + 0.0027 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.1697)
= $64.70
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4122 + 0.0027 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.4869)
= $88.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4122 + 0.0027 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.3714)
= $79.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 163.34% per annum.
- DG price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.