Walmart Inc (WMT)
Walmart Inc. is an American multinational retail corporation that operates a chain of hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores from the United States, headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas. It also owns and operates Sam's Club retail warehouses.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.87% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $87.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.12 (11.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.43% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2023
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 1.8064
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.52%
November 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8064 + 0.0016 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(3.9383)
= $51.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y914)
= Exp(a + b × X914 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8064 + 0.0016 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(3.8115)
= $45.22
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8064 + 0.0016 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.6773)
= $107.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8064 + 0.0016 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.5505)
= $94.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 76.87% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $87.79 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.12 (11.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2025
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 12.5659
b = -0.0045
s = 0.0297
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0045) – 1
= -80.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.64%
February 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5659 + -0.0045 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.7163)
= $111.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5659 + -0.0045 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.5973)
= $99.21
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5659 + -0.0045 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.4839)
= $88.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.5659 + -0.0045 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.3649)
= $78.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 80.43% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.39 (0.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.