Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Costco Wholesale Corporation (doing business as Costco Wholesale and also known simply as Costco) is an American multinational corporation which operates a chain of membership-only (needing a membership to shop there) big-box retail stores. As of 2020, Costco was the fifth largest retailer in the world, and the world's largest retailer of choice and prime beef, organic foods, rotisserie chicken, and wine as of 2016.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.32% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $975.48 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.38 (3.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.17% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 15, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 4.9491
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0498
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0498) – 1
= 22.02%
December 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y666)
= Exp(a + b × X666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 962 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(6.1404)
= $464.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y666)
= Exp(a + b × X666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 962 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(5.9414)
= $380.46
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(7.0620)
= $1,166.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9491 + 0.0011 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(6.8629)
= $956.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.32% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $975.48 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $35.38 (3.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 16, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.8337
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.29%
May 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,480 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.7953)
= $893.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,480 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.6273)
= $755.46
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.9987)
= $1,095.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8337 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(6.8307)
= $925.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.17% per annum.
- COST price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.