BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., operates warehouse clubs on the East Coast of the United States. The company is headquartered in Westborough, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.19% per annum.
- BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $85.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.05% per annum.
- BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2021
End date: May 22, 2024
a = 4.0263
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0759
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.47%
August 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 638 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.2831)
= $72.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 638 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(3.9796)
= $53.49
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 1,644 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.4488)
= $85.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 1,644 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.1452)
= $63.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.19% per annum.
- BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $85.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.2508
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0557
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0557) – 1
= 24.96%
May 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,279 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.2287)
= $68.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,279 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.0058)
= $54.92
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.5993)
= $99.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.3764)
= $79.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.05% per annum.
- BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.