Stock Price Trends

BJs Wholesale Club Holdings Inc (BJ)

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., operates warehouse clubs on the East Coast of the United States. The company is headquartered in Westborough, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.19% per annum.
  • BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $85.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.05% per annum.
  • BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BJ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 20, 2021
End date: May 22, 2024

a = 4.0263

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0759

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.47%

August 20, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 638 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.2831)
= $72.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 638 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(3.9796)
= $53.49

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 1,644 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.4488)
= $85.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0263 + 0.0002 × 1,644 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.1452)
= $63.13

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.19% per annum.
  • BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $85.70 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.2508

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0557

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0557) – 1
= 24.96%

May 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,279 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.2287)
= $68.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y880)
= Exp(a + b × X880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,279 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.0058)
= $54.92

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.5993)
= $99.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2508 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.3764)
= $79.55

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.05% per annum.
  • BJ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

PSMT
PriceSmart Inc