Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)
Dollar Tree is an American chain of discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less, headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.46% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $63.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.15% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DLTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 9.9287
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0754
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0754) – 1
= 35.21%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9287 + -0.0032 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(5.2116)
= $183.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9287 + -0.0032 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(4.9099)
= $135.63
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9287 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(4.3075)
= $74.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9287 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0754)
= Exp(4.0059)
= $54.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.46% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $63.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.6467
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0376
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.25%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6467 + -0.0014 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.3415)
= $76.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6467 + -0.0014 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.1909)
= $66.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6467 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.2367)
= $69.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6467 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.0861)
= $59.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.15% per annum.
- DLTR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.