Stock Price Trends

ScanSource Inc (SCSC)

ScanSource, Inc. distributes technology products and solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Greenville, South Carolina.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.23% per annum.
  • SCSC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.75 (1.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.63% per annum.
  • SCSC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SCSC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 18, 2023
End date: September 5, 2024

a = 1.6669

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0577

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0577) – 1
= 25.96%

April 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6669 + 0.0013 × 1,245 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(3.3904)
= $29.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y856)
= Exp(a + b × X856 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6669 + 0.0013 × 1,245 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(3.1596)
= $23.56

September 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6669 + 0.0013 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.0439)
= $57.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6669 + 0.0013 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(3.8132)
= $45.29

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.23% per annum.
  • SCSC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.75 (1.51%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 12, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.6151

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0512

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0512) – 1
= 22.75%

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6151 + 0.0007 × 1,483 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(3.7720)
= $43.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,483 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6151 + 0.0007 × 1,483 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(3.5670)
= $35.41

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6151 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(4.0158)
= $55.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6151 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(3.8109)
= $45.19

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.63% per annum.
  • SCSC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.