Stock Price Trends

Avnet Inc (AVT)

Avnet, Inc., a technology solutions company, markets, sells and distributes electronic components. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.52% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $52.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.99% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: May 6, 2024

a = 3.4560

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0604

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.35%

January 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4560 + 0.0002 × 413 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.6798)
= $39.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4560 + 0.0002 × 413 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.4380)
= $31.12

May 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4560 + 0.0002 × 1,629 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.9829)
= $53.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4560 + 0.0002 × 1,629 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(3.7411)
= $42.14

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.52% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $52.26 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 6, 2022
End date: November 18, 2024

a = 3.2141

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.99%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.42%

September 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2141 + 0.0004 × 1,021 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.7500)
= $42.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y702)
= Exp(a + b × X702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2141 + 0.0004 × 1,021 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.5559)
= $35.02

November 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2141 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.0956)
= $60.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2141 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.9015)
= $49.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.99% per annum.
  • AVT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.