Stock Price Trends

PC Connection Inc (CNXN)

PC Connection, Inc., provides a range of information technology (IT) solutions. The company is headquartered in Merrimack, New Hampshire.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.71% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $69.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.21 (19.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.72% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNXN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 10, 2023
End date: April 1, 2024

a = 2.0159

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0528

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0528) – 1
= 23.49%

February 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y811)
= Exp(a + b × X811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0159 + 0.0014 × 1,178 + 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(3.7708)
= $43.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y811)
= Exp(a + b × X811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0159 + 0.0014 × 1,178 – 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(3.5598)
= $35.16

April 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0159 + 0.0014 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(4.3533)
= $77.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0159 + 0.0014 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.0528)
= Exp(4.1422)
= $62.94

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.71% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $69.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.21 (19.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 3, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.5412

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.30%

November 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0004 × 1,444 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.2030)
= $66.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0004 × 1,444 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.0349)
= $56.54

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.3558)
= $77.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5412 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.1878)
= $65.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.72% per annum.
  • CNXN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.