Stock Price Trends

ePlus inc (PLUS)

ePlus inc. The company is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.39% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $79.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.59 (4.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.10% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 2, 2022
End date: November 12, 2024

a = 2.6719

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0791

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.22%

September 2, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6719 + 0.0010 × 1,017 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.8920)
= $49.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y701)
= Exp(a + b × X701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6719 + 0.0010 × 1,017 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.5756)
= $35.72

November 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6719 + 0.0010 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.7294)
= $113.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6719 + 0.0010 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.4130)
= $82.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.39% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $79.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.59 (4.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 9.0728

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0550

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.10%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.62%

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0728 + -0.0025 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(4.7397)
= $114.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0728 + -0.0025 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(4.5196)
= $91.80

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0728 + -0.0025 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(4.5861)
= $98.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0728 + -0.0025 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(4.3660)
= $78.73

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.10% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.