Stock Price Trends

ePlus inc (PLUS)

ePlus inc. The company is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.70% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $61.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.58% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 17, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 8.6766

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0539

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0539) – 1
= 24.06%

September 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6766 + -0.0025 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.7263)
= $112.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,122)
= Exp(a + b × X1,122 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6766 + -0.0025 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.5107)
= $90.99

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6766 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.2408)
= $69.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6766 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(4.0252)
= $55.99

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.70% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $61.03 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 11.3526

b = -0.0040

s = 0.0401

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -76.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.41%

January 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3526 + -0.0040 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.4739)
= $87.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3526 + -0.0040 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.3134)
= $74.69

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3526 + -0.0040 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.1757)
= $65.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3526 + -0.0040 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.0152)
= $55.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.58% per annum.
  • PLUS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.