Stock Price Trends

CDW Corp (CDW)

CDW Corporation, headquartered in Lincolnshire, Illinois, is a provider of technology products and services for business, government and education.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.84% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $175.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.50 (8.09%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.67% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CDW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 7, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024

a = 6.4419

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0405

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0405) – 1
= 17.57%

February 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4419 + -0.0006 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.5906)
= $267.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4419 + -0.0006 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.4287)
= $227.85

November 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4419 + -0.0006 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.4210)
= $226.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4419 + -0.0006 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.2591)
= $192.30

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.84% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $175.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.50 (8.09%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 8, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 16.0841

b = -0.0060

s = 0.0369

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -88.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.92%

October 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0841 + -0.0060 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.5188)
= $249.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0841 + -0.0060 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.3711)
= $215.11

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0841 + -0.0060 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.2623)
= $192.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.0841 + -0.0060 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.1146)
= $166.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.67% per annum.
  • CDW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.