Stock Price Trends

RXO Inc. (RXO)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.96% per annum.
  • RXO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.02% per annum.
  • RXO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RXO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: November 11, 2024

a = 2.0750

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0928

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0928) – 1
= 44.94%

February 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0750 + 0.0018 × 488 + 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(3.1462)
= $23.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y333)
= Exp(a + b × X333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0750 + 0.0018 × 488 – 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(2.7751)
= $16.04

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0750 + 0.0018 × 746 + 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(3.6145)
= $37.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0750 + 0.0018 × 746 – 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(3.2434)
= $25.62

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.96% per annum.
  • RXO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $27.42 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.6541

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0473

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.85%

July 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6541 + -0.0004 × 627 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(3.4691)
= $32.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6541 + -0.0004 × 627 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(3.2797)
= $26.57

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y518)
= Exp(a + b × X518 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6541 + -0.0004 × 754 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(3.4125)
= $30.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y518)
= Exp(a + b × X518 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6541 + -0.0004 × 754 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(3.2231)
= $25.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.02% per annum.
  • RXO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.