XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)
XPO Logistics, Inc. provides supply chain solutions in the United States, the rest of North America, France, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.79% per annum.
- XPO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $107.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.79 (19.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.07% per annum.
- XPO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XPO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: February 18, 2025
a = 1.7875
b = 0.0019
s = 0.1612
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1612) – 1
= 90.56%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7875 + 0.0019 × 765 + 2 × 0.1612)
= Exp(3.5500)
= $34.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7875 + 0.0019 × 765 – 2 × 0.1612)
= Exp(2.9052)
= $18.27
February 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7875 + 0.0019 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.1612)
= Exp(5.4682)
= $237.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7875 + 0.0019 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.1612)
= Exp(4.8234)
= $124.39
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.79% per annum.
- XPO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $107.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.79 (19.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 4.2101
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1100
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1100) – 1
= 55.26%
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2101 + 0.0004 × 1,406 + 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(4.9371)
= $139.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2101 + 0.0004 × 1,406 – 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(4.4972)
= $89.76
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2101 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(5.0882)
= $162.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2101 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(4.6483)
= $104.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.07% per annum.
- XPO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.