Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)
Heartland Express, Inc., is a short- to medium-haul truck freight carrier in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.03% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $12.26 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.58 (4.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 18, 2022
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 3.6410
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0629
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.62%
November 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6410 + -0.0007 × 1,094 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.9824)
= $19.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y755)
= Exp(a + b × X755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6410 + -0.0007 × 1,094 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.7308)
= $15.34
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6410 + -0.0007 × 1,695 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.5515)
= $12.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6410 + -0.0007 × 1,695 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.2999)
= $9.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.03% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $12.26 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.58 (4.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2024
End date: October 1, 2024
a = 1.2259
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0445
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0445) – 1
= 19.49%
March 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2259 + 0.0007 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(2.4729)
= $11.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2259 + 0.0007 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(2.2948)
= $9.92
October 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2259 + 0.0007 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(2.6197)
= $13.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2259 + 0.0007 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0445)
= Exp(2.4417)
= $11.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.74% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.