Stock Price Trends

Saia Inc (SAIA)

Saia, Inc., is a transportation company in North America. The company is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.56% per annum.
  • SAIA price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $499.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.09% per annum.
  • SAIA price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SAIA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 18, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 5.6881

b = 0.0003

s = 0.1275

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1275) – 1
= 66.52%

July 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6881 + 0.0003 × 1,267 + 2 × 0.1275)
= Exp(6.2916)
= $539.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6881 + 0.0003 × 1,267 – 2 × 0.1275)
= Exp(5.7816)
= $324.28

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6881 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1275)
= Exp(6.4453)
= $629.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6881 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1275)
= Exp(5.9354)
= $378.18

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.56% per annum.
  • SAIA price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $499.83 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 26, 2024
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 3.0757

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0799

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 90.09%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.68%

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0018 × 1,641 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(6.1235)
= $456.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0018 × 1,641 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(5.8037)
= $331.53

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(6.4491)
= $632.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(6.1293)
= $459.11

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.09% per annum.
  • SAIA price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.