Packaging Corp of America (PKG)
Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.96% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $244.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.53 (1.05%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 105.07% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PKG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.5187
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0383
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.58%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5187 + 0.0010 × 1,251 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.8915)
= $133.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y860)
= Exp(a + b × X860 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5187 + 0.0010 × 1,251 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(4.7381)
= $114.21
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5187 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.4872)
= $241.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5187 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(5.3338)
= $207.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.96% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $244.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.53 (1.05%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.8825
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0183
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0183) – 1
= 7.59%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8825 + 0.0020 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.2246)
= $185.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8825 + 0.0020 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.1515)
= $172.68
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8825 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.5119)
= $247.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8825 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0183)
= Exp(5.4387)
= $230.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 105.07% per annum.
- PKG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.