Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, offers paper packaging solutions for food, beverage, food service and other consumer products companies. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.85% per annum.
- GPK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.37 (10.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.09% per annum.
- GPK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2023
End date: June 5, 2024
a = 1.4911
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0426
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.59%
August 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,359 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4911 + 0.0011 × 1,359 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.1071)
= $22.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,359 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4911 + 0.0011 × 1,359 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(2.9366)
= $18.85
June 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4911 + 0.0011 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.4439)
= $31.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4911 + 0.0011 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(3.2734)
= $26.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 50.85% per annum.
- GPK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $28.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.37 (10.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4774
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.05%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4774 + 0.0005 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.2918)
= $26.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4774 + 0.0005 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.1516)
= $23.37
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4774 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.4633)
= $31.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4774 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.3231)
= $27.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.09% per annum.
- GPK price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.