Amcor PLC (AMCR)
Amcor plc is an Australian-American, UK-domiciled packaging company. It develops and produces flexible packaging, rigid containers, specialty cartons, closures and services for food, beverage, pharmaceutical, medical-device, home and personal-care, and other products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.87% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $10.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.73% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMCR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2023
End date: October 31, 2024
a = 1.1432
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.79%
September 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1432 + 0.0007 × 1,398 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(2.1966)
= $8.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1432 + 0.0007 × 1,398 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(2.0328)
= $7.64
October 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1432 + 0.0007 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(2.4801)
= $11.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1432 + 0.0007 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(2.3164)
= $10.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.87% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $10.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.7428
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0221
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0221) – 1
= 9.24%
September 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7428 + -0.0024 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.4925)
= $12.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7428 + -0.0024 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.4041)
= $11.07
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7428 + -0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.3591)
= $10.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7428 + -0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(2.2708)
= $9.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.73% per annum.
- AMCR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.