Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)
Avery Dennison Corporation is a multinational manufacturer and distributor of pressure-sensitive adhesive materials (such as self-adhesive labels), apparel branding labels and tags, RFID inlays, and specialty medical products. The company is headquartered in Glendale, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.93% per annum.
- AVY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $197.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.76 (5.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.54% per annum.
- AVY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: November 14, 2023
a = 5.3255
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0790
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0790) – 1
= 37.14%
February 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3255 + -0.0001 × 442 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(5.4222)
= $226.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3255 + -0.0001 × 442 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(5.1063)
= $165.06
November 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3255 + -0.0001 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(5.2820)
= $196.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3255 + -0.0001 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(4.9661)
= $143.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.93% per annum.
- AVY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $197.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.76 (5.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2022
End date: November 13, 2024
a = 4.7923
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0613
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0613) – 1
= 27.77%
February 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y566)
= Exp(a + b × X566 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7923 + 0.0003 × 824 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(5.1816)
= $177.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y566)
= Exp(a + b × X566 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7923 + 0.0003 × 824 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.9365)
= $139.28
November 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7923 + 0.0003 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(5.5036)
= $245.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7923 + 0.0003 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(5.2586)
= $192.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.54% per annum.
- AVY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.