International Paper (IP)
The International Paper Company (NYSE: IP) is an American pulp and paper company, the largest such company in the world. The company is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.52% per annum.
- IP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $58.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.05 (3.60%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 86.21% per annum.
- IP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.9974
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0654
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0654) – 1
= 29.92%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9974 + 0.0010 × 1,258 + 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(3.4449)
= $31.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9974 + 0.0010 × 1,258 – 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(3.1832)
= $24.12
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9974 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(4.0394)
= $56.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9974 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(3.7777)
= $43.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.52% per annum.
- IP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $58.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.05 (3.60%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 0.8826
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0555
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0555) – 1
= 24.87%
January 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8826 + 0.0017 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(3.6032)
= $36.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8826 + 0.0017 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(3.3810)
= $29.40
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8826 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(4.1040)
= $60.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8826 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0555)
= Exp(3.8818)
= $48.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 86.21% per annum.
- IP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.