Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (PK)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.63% per annum.
- PK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.05% per annum.
- PK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: August 1, 2024
a = 1.3942
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0979
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0979) – 1
= 47.96%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3942 + 0.0008 × 1,036 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(2.4130)
= $11.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,036 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3942 + 0.0008 × 1,036 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(2.0212)
= $7.55
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3942 + 0.0008 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(2.9530)
= $19.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3942 + 0.0008 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(2.5613)
= $12.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.63% per annum.
- PK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 28, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 3.9751
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0355) – 1
= 15.25%
February 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9751 + -0.0008 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(2.8698)
= $17.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9751 + -0.0008 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(2.7279)
= $15.30
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9751 + -0.0008 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(2.6807)
= $14.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9751 + -0.0008 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(2.5388)
= $12.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.05% per annum.
- PK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.