Stock Price Trends

Summit Hotel Properties Inc (INN)

Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust focused on the ownership of premium brand hotels with efficient operating models primarily in the luxury segment of the lodging industry.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.13% per annum.
  • INN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $5.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.51% per annum.
  • INN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.55 (9.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 2.3863

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0824

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -15.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0824) – 1
= 39.02%

February 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3863 + -0.0004 × 313 + 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(2.4103)
= $11.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y215)
= Exp(a + b × X215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3863 + -0.0004 × 313 – 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(2.0808)
= $8.01

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3863 + -0.0004 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(1.8420)
= $6.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3863 + -0.0004 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(1.5125)
= $4.54

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.13% per annum.
  • INN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $5.41 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 15, 2023
End date: March 10, 2025

a = 1.3899

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0523

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0523) – 1
= 23.27%

June 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y807)
= Exp(a + b × X807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3899 + 0.0003 × 1,170 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(1.8150)
= $6.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y807)
= Exp(a + b × X807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3899 + 0.0003 × 1,170 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(1.6058)
= $4.98

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3899 + 0.0003 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(1.9886)
= $7.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3899 + 0.0003 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0523)
= Exp(1.7794)
= $5.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.51% per annum.
  • INN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.55 (9.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.