Stock Price Trends

VICI Properties Inc (VICI)

VICI Properties is an experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality and entertainment destinations, including the world-renowned Caesars Palace.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.16% per annum.
  • VICI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $32.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.53% per annum.
  • VICI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.31 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VICI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 31, 2021
End date: August 22, 2024

a = 3.1642

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0614

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0614) – 1
= 27.83%

March 31, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y341)
= Exp(a + b × X341 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1642 + 0.0001 × 497 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.3555)
= $28.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y341)
= Exp(a + b × X341 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1642 + 0.0001 × 497 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.1099)
= $22.42

August 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1642 + 0.0001 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.5263)
= $34.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1642 + 0.0001 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(3.2807)
= $26.59

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.16% per annum.
  • VICI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $32.22 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 24, 2024

a = 1.3721

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0335

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.34%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3721 + 0.0012 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(3.3504)
= $28.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3721 + 0.0012 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(3.2164)
= $24.94

October 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3721 + 0.0012 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(3.5853)
= $36.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3721 + 0.0012 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(3.4513)
= $31.54

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.53% per annum.
  • VICI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.31 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.