Stock Price Trends

Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST)

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in hotels.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.43% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $17.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.13 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.48% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 22, 2023
End date: September 16, 2024

a = 4.0397

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0380

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.43%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.40%

December 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,493 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.0767)
= $21.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,493 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.9248)
= $18.63

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.8895)
= $17.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.7376)
= $15.45

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.43% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $17.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.13 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024

a = 0.9656

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0269

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.48%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0269) – 1
= 11.38%

August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.8462)
= $17.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.7384)
= $15.46

November 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.9569)
= $19.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.8491)
= $17.27

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.48% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.