Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST)
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in hotels.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.43% per annum.
- HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $17.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.13 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.48% per annum.
- HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 22, 2023
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 4.0397
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.40%
December 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,493 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.0767)
= $21.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,029)
= Exp(a + b × X1,029 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,493 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.9248)
= $18.63
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.8895)
= $17.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0397 + -0.0007 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.7376)
= $15.45
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.43% per annum.
- HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $17.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.13 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: November 13, 2024
a = 0.9656
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0269
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0269) – 1
= 11.38%
August 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.8462)
= $17.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.7384)
= $15.46
November 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.9569)
= $19.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9656 + 0.0011 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(2.8491)
= $17.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.48% per annum.
- HST price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.05 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.