Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST)
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in hotels.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.93% per annum.
- HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $13.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (7.37%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.70% per annum.
- HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.67 (4.82%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 21, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.4529
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0487
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.49%
December 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,354 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(3.0369)
= $20.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,354 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.8422)
= $17.15
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.8594)
= $17.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.6647)
= $14.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.93% per annum.
- HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $13.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (7.37%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 6.1142
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0223
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0223) – 1
= 9.35%
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.9562)
= $19.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.8668)
= $17.58
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.7284)
= $15.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.6390)
= $14.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.70% per annum.
- HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.67 (4.82%).