Stock Price Trends

Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (HST)

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in hotels.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.93% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $13.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (7.37%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.70% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.67 (4.82%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 21, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 3.4529

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0487

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.49%

December 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,354 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,354 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(3.0369)
= $20.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,354 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,354 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.8422)
= $17.15

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.8594)
= $17.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4529 + -0.0004 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(2.6647)
= $14.36

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.93% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was $13.30 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (7.37%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 6.1142

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0223

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0223) – 1
= 9.35%

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.9562)
= $19.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.8668)
= $17.58

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.7284)
= $15.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1142 + -0.0019 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(2.6390)
= $14.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.70% per annum.
  • HST price at the close of April 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.67 (4.82%).