Diamondrock Hospitality Company (DRH)
DiamondRock Hospitality Company is a self-advising real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns a leading portfolio of geographically diversified hotels concentrated in major entry markets and destination resort locations.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.30% per annum.
- DRH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $8.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.66 (7.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.77% per annum.
- DRH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.45 (4.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DRH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 10, 2021
End date: December 7, 2023
a = 2.3633
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0653
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0653) – 1
= 29.85%
February 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3633 + -0.0002 × 448 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(2.4009)
= $11.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3633 + -0.0002 × 448 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(2.1397)
= $8.50
December 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3633 + -0.0002 × 1,478 + 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(2.1871)
= $8.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3633 + -0.0002 × 1,478 – 2 × 0.0653)
= Exp(1.9259)
= $6.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.30% per annum.
- DRH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $8.95 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.66 (7.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 1.3894
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0463
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0463) – 1
= 20.36%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3894 + 0.0005 × 1,205 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(2.1050)
= $8.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3894 + 0.0005 × 1,205 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(1.9197)
= $6.82
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3894 + 0.0005 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(2.3216)
= $10.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3894 + 0.0005 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0463)
= Exp(2.1363)
= $8.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.77% per annum.
- DRH price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.45 (4.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.