Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY)
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. is a technology company and payment processing service for the financial services industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.75% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $171.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.21% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JKHY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2023
End date: November 15, 2024
a = 4.4600
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0405
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0405) – 1
= 17.57%
August 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4600 + 0.0004 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.0880)
= $162.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4600 + 0.0004 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(4.9261)
= $137.84
November 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4600 + 0.0004 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.2711)
= $194.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4600 + 0.0004 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0405)
= Exp(5.1093)
= $165.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.75% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $171.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 14.3727
b = -0.0051
s = 0.0079
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0079) – 1
= 3.19%
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3727 + -0.0051 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0079)
= Exp(5.2290)
= $186.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3727 + -0.0051 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0079)
= Exp(5.1976)
= $180.84
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3727 + -0.0051 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0079)
= Exp(5.1532)
= $172.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3727 + -0.0051 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0079)
= Exp(5.1217)
= $167.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.21% per annum.
- JKHY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.