Corpay Inc (CPAY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.19% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $338.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.37 (2.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.98% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.5997
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0696
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.11%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y555)
= Exp(a + b × X555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5997 + 0.0008 × 805 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.3543)
= $211.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y555)
= Exp(a + b × X555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5997 + 0.0008 × 805 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.0759)
= $160.11
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5997 + 0.0008 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(6.0653)
= $430.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5997 + 0.0008 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.7869)
= $325.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.19% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $338.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.37 (2.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2024
End date: July 1, 2025
a = 6.9509
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0534
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0534) – 1
= 23.82%
November 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,590 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9509 + -0.0006 × 1,590 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(6.0323)
= $416.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,590 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9509 + -0.0006 × 1,590 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.8186)
= $336.50
July 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9509 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.8807)
= $358.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9509 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.6670)
= $289.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.98% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.