Corpay Inc (CPAY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.62% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $302.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.93 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.29% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: May 13, 2024
a = 4.1755
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0585
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0585) – 1
= 26.34%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1755 + 0.0009 × 1,103 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.3011)
= $200.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1755 + 0.0009 × 1,103 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.0672)
= $158.73
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1755 + 0.0009 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.8543)
= $348.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1755 + 0.0009 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0585)
= Exp(5.6204)
= $276.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.62% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $302.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.93 (1.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2023
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 4.8991
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0639
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0639) – 1
= 29.11%
May 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y921)
= Exp(a + b × X921 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8991 + 0.0004 × 1,334 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(5.6098)
= $273.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y921)
= Exp(a + b × X921 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8991 + 0.0004 × 1,334 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(5.3543)
= $211.52
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8991 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(5.8239)
= $338.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8991 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(5.5684)
= $262.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 17.29% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.