Corpay Inc (CPAY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.24% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $358.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.44% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.5292
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0695
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0695) – 1
= 32.06%
September 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5292 + 0.0008 × 896 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(5.3542)
= $211.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5292 + 0.0008 × 896 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(5.0761)
= $160.15
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5292 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(6.0655)
= $430.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5292 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0695)
= Exp(5.7874)
= $326.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.24% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $358.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 8.8629
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0326
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.91%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8629 + -0.0017 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(6.0165)
= $410.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8629 + -0.0017 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.8862)
= $360.05
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8629 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.8986)
= $364.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8629 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(5.7684)
= $320.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.44% per annum.
- CPAY price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.