Stock Price Trends

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)

PayPal Holdings, Inc. is an American company operating an online payments system in the majority of countries that support online money transfers, and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. The company operates as a payment processor for online vendors, auction sites, and many other commercial users, for which it charges a fee.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.04% per annum.
  • PYPL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $84.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 183.87% per annum.
  • PYPL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PYPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.8972

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0689

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0689) – 1
= 31.74%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8972 + 0.0008 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.1308)
= $62.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8972 + 0.0008 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(3.8552)
= $47.24

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8972 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.4633)
= $86.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8972 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0689)
= Exp(4.1876)
= $65.87

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.04% per annum.
  • PYPL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $84.09 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 24, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.7479

b = 0.0029

s = 0.0352

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 183.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.14%

June 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7479 + 0.0029 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.1191)
= $61.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7479 + 0.0029 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(3.9782)
= $53.42

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7479 + 0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.5422)
= $93.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.7479 + 0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.4012)
= $81.55

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 183.87% per annum.
  • PYPL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.