PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL)
PayPal Holdings, Inc. is an American company operating an online payments system in the majority of countries that support online money transfers, and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. The company operates as a payment processor for online vendors, auction sites, and many other commercial users, for which it charges a fee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.92% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $66.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.78 (9.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.52% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PYPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 9, 2023
End date: February 25, 2025
a = 3.0310
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0825
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0825) – 1
= 39.11%
August 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0310 + 0.0008 × 1,224 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.1503)
= $63.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0310 + 0.0008 × 1,224 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(3.8202)
= $45.61
February 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0310 + 0.0008 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.5916)
= $98.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0310 + 0.0008 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.2615)
= $70.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.92% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $66.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.78 (9.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 9.5335
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0487
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.51%
December 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5335 + -0.0029 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.6511)
= $104.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5335 + -0.0029 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.4563)
= $86.17
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5335 + -0.0029 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.3068)
= $74.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5335 + -0.0029 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.1120)
= $61.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 65.52% per annum.
- PYPL price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.