ICU Medical Inc (ICUI)
ICU Medical, Inc. develops, manufactures and sells medical devices used in infusion therapy and critical care applications worldwide. The company is headquartered in San Clemente, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 295.75% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $169.70 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.11 (10.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.23% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ICUI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 25, 2024
a = -1.5366
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0522
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 295.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0522) – 1
= 23.22%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5366 + 0.0038 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.6091)
= $100.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5366 + 0.0038 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(4.4003)
= $81.48
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5366 + 0.0038 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(5.3554)
= $211.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5366 + 0.0038 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0522)
= Exp(5.1465)
= $171.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 295.75% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $169.70 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.11 (10.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.0445
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.48%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0445 + -0.0005 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.2271)
= $186.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0445 + -0.0005 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.1549)
= $173.28
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0445 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.1946)
= $180.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0445 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.1224)
= $167.74
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.23% per annum.
- ICUI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.