Align Technology Inc (ALGN)
Align Technology is a manufacturer of 3D digital scanners and the Invisalign clear aligners used in orthodontics. It is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 92.01% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $158.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.06 (2.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.08% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 19, 2025
a = 17.6328
b = -0.0069
s = 0.0232
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0069) – 1
= -92.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0232) – 1
= 9.73%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6328 + -0.0069 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(5.5199)
= $249.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6328 + -0.0069 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(5.4270)
= $227.47
March 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6328 + -0.0069 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(5.1252)
= $168.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.6328 + -0.0069 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(5.0323)
= $153.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 92.01% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $158.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.06 (2.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 7.1891
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0226
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0226) – 1
= 9.46%
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1891 + -0.0011 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.1829)
= $178.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1891 + -0.0011 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.0925)
= $162.79
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1891 + -0.0011 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.1555)
= $173.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1891 + -0.0011 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0226)
= Exp(5.0651)
= $158.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.08% per annum.
- ALGN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.