Avanos Medical Inc (AVNS)
Avanos Medical, Inc. is a medical technology company focused on providing medical device solutions to improve the quality of life for patients in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.43% per annum.
- AVNS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $17.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.69 (35.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.72% per annum.
- AVNS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVNS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2020
End date: November 9, 2022
a = 4.2309
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0788
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0788) – 1
= 37.04%
November 3, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2309 + -0.0010 × 349 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(4.0416)
= $56.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2309 + -0.0010 × 349 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.7265)
= $41.53
November 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2309 + -0.0010 × 1,085 + 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(3.3099)
= $27.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2309 + -0.0010 × 1,085 – 2 × 0.0788)
= Exp(2.9949)
= $19.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.43% per annum.
- AVNS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $17.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.69 (35.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 23, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.7982
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1093
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1093) – 1
= 54.85%
June 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y399)
= Exp(a + b × X399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7982 + -0.0005 × 581 + 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(3.7446)
= $42.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y399)
= Exp(a + b × X399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7982 + -0.0005 × 581 – 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(3.3074)
= $27.31
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7982 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(3.1614)
= $23.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7982 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1093)
= Exp(2.7241)
= $15.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.72% per annum.
- AVNS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.