Neogen Corporation (NEOG)
Neogen Corporation, develops, manufactures and markets various products for food and animal safety worldwide. The company is headquartered in Lansing, Michigan.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.27% per annum.
- NEOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $15.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.79 (51.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.55% per annum.
- NEOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NEOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: September 20, 2023
a = 1.3570
b = 0.0013
s = 0.1119
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1119) – 1
= 56.48%
September 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3570 + 0.0013 × 1,016 + 2 × 0.1119)
= Exp(2.8590)
= $17.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3570 + 0.0013 × 1,016 – 2 × 0.1119)
= Exp(2.4112)
= $11.15
September 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3570 + 0.0013 × 1,400 + 2 × 0.1119)
= Exp(3.3420)
= $28.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3570 + 0.0013 × 1,400 – 2 × 0.1119)
= Exp(2.8943)
= $18.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 58.27% per annum.
- NEOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $15.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.79 (51.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.5281
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1265
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1265) – 1
= 65.85%
January 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5281 + -0.0005 × 1,146 + 2 × 0.1265)
= Exp(3.2505)
= $25.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5281 + -0.0005 × 1,146 – 2 × 0.1265)
= Exp(2.7446)
= $15.56
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5281 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1265)
= Exp(2.9358)
= $18.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5281 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1265)
= Exp(2.4298)
= $11.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.55% per annum.
- NEOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.