Hilton Grand Vacations Inc (HGV)
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc., a timeshare company, develops, markets, sells and manages vacation-owned resorts primarily under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.29% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $40.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.83% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.15 (0.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HGV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.8996
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0959
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0959) – 1
= 46.79%
April 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8996 + -0.0001 × 512 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(4.0301)
= $56.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8996 + -0.0001 × 512 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.6463)
= $38.33
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8996 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.8723)
= $48.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8996 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0959)
= Exp(3.4885)
= $32.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.29% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $40.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.0906
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0543
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.28%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0906 + -0.0008 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.9330)
= $51.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0906 + -0.0008 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.7156)
= $41.08
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0906 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.7046)
= $40.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0906 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.4872)
= $32.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.83% per annum.
- HGV price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.15 (0.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.