Stock Price Trends

Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH)

Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a global hotel franchisor. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $126.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.58% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 14, 2021
End date: September 16, 2024

a = 4.8586

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0767

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0767) – 1
= 35.89%

May 14, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8586 + -0.0001 × 382 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9875)
= $146.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y265)
= Exp(a + b × X265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8586 + -0.0001 × 382 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6808)
= $107.86

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8586 + -0.0001 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9093)
= $135.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8586 + -0.0001 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6026)
= $99.74

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $126.19 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 16, 2022
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 4.5412

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0638

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.06%

June 16, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y540)
= Exp(a + b × X540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5412 + 0.0002 × 780 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.8250)
= $124.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y540)
= Exp(a + b × X540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5412 + 0.0002 × 780 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.5698)
= $96.53

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5412 + 0.0002 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(5.0296)
= $152.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5412 + 0.0002 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(4.7745)
= $118.45

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.58% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.