Stock Price Trends

Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH)

Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a global hotel franchisor. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $132.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.38% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.18 (2.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 14, 2021
End date: September 16, 2024

a = 4.8602

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0767

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0767) – 1
= 35.89%

May 14, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 407 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9875)
= $146.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 407 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6808)
= $107.86

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 1,628 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9093)
= $135.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 1,628 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6026)
= $99.74

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $132.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 17, 2023
End date: March 10, 2025

a = 3.8712

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0450

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.38%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.70%

October 17, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8712 + 0.0006 × 1,293 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.7622)
= $117.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8712 + 0.0006 × 1,293 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.5824)
= $97.75

March 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8712 + 0.0006 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.0782)
= $160.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8712 + 0.0006 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.8984)
= $134.08

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.38% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of April 1, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.18 (2.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.