Stock Price Trends

Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH)

Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a leading global franchisor of hotels, headquartered in Rockville, Maryland. With a diverse portfolio of brands catering to both economy and upscale segments, the company operates thousands of hotels across more than 40 countries, emphasizing a strong focus on franchisee support and innovation. Choice Hotels leverages its robust distribution and marketing networks to drive brand visibility and customer engagement, positioning itself as a key player in the hospitality industry. The company's strategic growth initiatives include expanding its footprint through franchising and enhancing technology-driven solutions to improve operational efficiency.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.11% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of October 13, 2025 was $100.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.81% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of October 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 10, 2025
End date: October 13, 2025

a = 10.1854

b = -0.0030

s = 0.0166

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -67.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0166) – 1
= 6.88%

July 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1854 + -0.0030 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(4.9474)
= $140.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1854 + -0.0030 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(4.8808)
= $131.74

October 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1854 + -0.0030 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(4.6579)
= $105.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1854 + -0.0030 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(4.5914)
= $98.63

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.11% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of October 13, 2025 was $100.79 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 24, 2025
End date: October 13, 2025

a = 15.1146

b = -0.0058

s = 0.0111

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0058) – 1
= -87.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.53%

September 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1146 + -0.0058 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.7249)
= $112.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1146 + -0.0058 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.6806)
= $107.83

October 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1146 + -0.0058 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.6154)
= $101.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.1146 + -0.0058 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.5710)
= $96.64

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.81% per annum.
  • CHH price at the close of October 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.