Choice Hotels International Inc (CHH)
Choice Hotels International, Inc. is a global hotel franchisor. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $134.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.17 (0.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.38% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.00 (1.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 14, 2021
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 4.8602
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0767
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0767) – 1
= 35.89%
May 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 406 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9875)
= $146.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 406 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6808)
= $107.86
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.9093)
= $135.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8602 + -0.0001 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(4.6026)
= $99.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.31% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $134.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.17 (0.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 17, 2023
End date: March 10, 2025
a = 3.8718
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.70%
October 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8718 + 0.0006 × 1,292 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.7622)
= $117.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8718 + 0.0006 × 1,292 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.5824)
= $97.75
March 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8718 + 0.0006 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(5.0782)
= $160.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8718 + 0.0006 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.8984)
= $134.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.38% per annum.
- CHH price at the close of April 2, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.00 (1.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.