Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., is a cruise company in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and internationally. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.85% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $18.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.91% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.48 (2.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NCLH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 2.0259
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1404) – 1
= 75.31%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0259 + 0.0006 × 799 + 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(2.8100)
= $16.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0259 + 0.0006 × 799 – 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(2.2486)
= $9.47
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0259 + 0.0006 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(3.4399)
= $31.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0259 + 0.0006 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.1404)
= Exp(2.8785)
= $17.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.85% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $18.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 28, 2025
End date: March 19, 2025
a = 20.2082
b = -0.0095
s = 0.0494
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0095) – 1
= -96.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0494) – 1
= 21.87%
January 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2082 + -0.0095 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(3.5077)
= $33.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2082 + -0.0095 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(3.3099)
= $27.38
March 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2082 + -0.0095 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(3.0312)
= $20.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2082 + -0.0095 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(2.8335)
= $17.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.91% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.48 (2.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.