Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., is a cruise company in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and internationally. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 714.93% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $26.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.97% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NCLH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -7.1621
b = 0.0057
s = 0.0396
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0057) – 1
= 714.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.18%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1621 + 0.0057 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(2.7803)
= $16.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1621 + 0.0057 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(2.6218)
= $13.76
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1621 + 0.0057 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.4068)
= $30.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1621 + 0.0057 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.2483)
= $25.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 714.93% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $26.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 11.0660
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0163
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -78.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0163) – 1
= 6.76%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0660 + -0.0043 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(3.3571)
= $28.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0660 + -0.0043 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(3.2917)
= $26.89
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0660 + -0.0043 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(3.2973)
= $27.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0660 + -0.0043 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0163)
= Exp(3.2319)
= $25.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.97% per annum.
- NCLH price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.