Carnival Corporation (CCL)
Carnival Corporation & plc is a British-American cruise operator, currently the world's largest travel leisure company, with a combined fleet of over 100 vessels across 10 cruise line brands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.44% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $25.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 548.69% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.2412
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1561
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1561) – 1
= 86.74%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2412 + 0.0010 × 935 + 2 × 0.1561)
= Exp(2.4597)
= $11.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2412 + 0.0010 × 935 – 2 × 0.1561)
= Exp(1.8352)
= $6.27
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2412 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1561)
= Exp(3.3233)
= $27.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2412 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1561)
= Exp(2.6987)
= $14.86
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.44% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $25.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = -6.1479
b = 0.0051
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 548.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1479 + 0.0051 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(2.7163)
= $15.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1479 + 0.0051 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(2.5689)
= $13.05
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1479 + 0.0051 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(3.2798)
= $26.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1479 + 0.0051 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(3.1324)
= $22.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 548.69% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.