Stock Price Trends

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H)

Hyatt Hotels Corporation is a hotel company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.79% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $124.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.78 (2.18%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.83% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of H price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.2696

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0615

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0615) – 1
= 27.87%

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2696 + -0.0002 × 1,421 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(5.1603)
= $174.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2696 + -0.0002 × 1,421 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(4.9144)
= $136.24

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2696 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(5.0943)
= $163.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2696 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(4.8484)
= $127.54

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.79% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $124.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.78 (2.18%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 13.8796

b = -0.0050

s = 0.0343

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0050) – 1
= -83.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.71%

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8796 + -0.0050 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.1636)
= $174.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8796 + -0.0050 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.0264)
= $152.38

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8796 + -0.0050 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(4.8392)
= $126.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8796 + -0.0050 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(4.7020)
= $110.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.83% per annum.
  • H price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.