Stock Price Trends

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H)

Hyatt Hotels Corporation is a hotel company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.92% per annum.
  • H price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $154.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
  • H price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.48 (3.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of H price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: July 31, 2024

a = 3.6371

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0794

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0794) – 1
= 37.37%

May 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6371 + 0.0008 × 897 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.5319)
= $92.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6371 + 0.0008 × 897 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.2143)
= $67.65

July 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6371 + 0.0008 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(5.2022)
= $181.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6371 + 0.0008 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0794)
= Exp(4.8847)
= $132.25

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.92% per annum.
  • H price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $154.83 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: September 18, 2024

a = 5.6617

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0325

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.87%

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6617 + -0.0004 × 1,555 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.1132)
= $166.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,555 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6617 + -0.0004 × 1,555 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.9833)
= $145.96

September 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6617 + -0.0004 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.0311)
= $153.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6617 + -0.0004 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.9012)
= $134.46

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.41% per annum.
  • H price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.48 (3.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.