Stock Price Trends

Elevance Health Inc (ELV)

Elevance Health Inc. is a health benefits company. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.29% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $347.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.89 (3.57%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.40% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 2, 2022
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 6.2356

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0901

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0901) – 1
= 43.41%

March 2, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y418)
= Exp(a + b × X418 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0001 × 604 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(6.3604)
= $578.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y418)
= Exp(a + b × X418 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0001 × 604 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(5.9999)
= $403.40

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(6.2486)
= $517.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(5.8881)
= $360.73

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.29% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $347.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.89 (3.57%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 18, 2024
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 7.5648

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0800

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0800) – 1
= 37.72%

April 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5648 + -0.0009 × 1,382 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(6.4600)
= $639.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5648 + -0.0009 × 1,382 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(6.1399)
= $464.02

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5648 + -0.0009 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(6.0564)
= $426.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5648 + -0.0009 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(5.7363)
= $309.92

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.40% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.