Elevance Health Inc (ELV)
Elevance Health Inc. is a health benefits company. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $394.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.58 (5.64%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.17% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2021
End date: February 6, 2024
a = 6.1491
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0481
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0481) – 1
= 21.22%
December 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1491 + 0.0000 × 755 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.2379)
= $511.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y520)
= Exp(a + b × X520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1491 + 0.0000 × 755 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.0455)
= $422.20
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1491 + 0.0000 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.2302)
= $507.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,058)
= Exp(a + b × X1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1491 + 0.0000 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(6.0378)
= $418.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $394.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.58 (5.64%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 14.8860
b = -0.0049
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0049) – 1
= -83.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.39%
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8860 + -0.0049 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(6.4425)
= $627.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8860 + -0.0049 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(6.2907)
= $539.52
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8860 + -0.0049 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(6.0470)
= $422.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8860 + -0.0049 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(5.8952)
= $363.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.17% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.