Stock Price Trends

Elevance Health Inc (ELV)

Elevance Health Inc. is a health benefits company. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.71% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $432.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.89% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 15, 2021
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 6.1594

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0879

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0879) – 1
= 42.12%

December 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y430)
= Exp(a + b × X430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1594 + 0.0000 × 622 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(6.3231)
= $557.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y430)
= Exp(a + b × X430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1594 + 0.0000 × 622 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(5.9716)
= $392.13

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1594 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(6.2997)
= $544.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1594 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(5.9482)
= $383.08

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.71% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $432.68 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 18, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 8.0732

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0790

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0790) – 1
= 37.14%

April 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0732 + -0.0012 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(6.4947)
= $661.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0732 + -0.0012 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(6.1788)
= $482.41

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0732 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(6.0855)
= $439.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0732 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0790)
= Exp(5.7697)
= $320.43

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.89% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.