Stock Price Trends

Elevance Health Inc (ELV)

Elevance Health Inc. is a health benefits company. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.69% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $434.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.14% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 15, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 6.1591

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0879

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0879) – 1
= 42.13%

December 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y431)
= Exp(a + b × X431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1591 + 0.0000 × 623 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(6.3230)
= $557.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y431)
= Exp(a + b × X431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1591 + 0.0000 × 623 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(5.9714)
= $392.05

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1591 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(6.3001)
= $544.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1591 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0879)
= Exp(5.9484)
= $383.16

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.69% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $434.96 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 18, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 8.0910

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0786

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0786) – 1
= 36.93%

April 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0910 + -0.0012 × 1,478 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(6.4951)
= $661.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0910 + -0.0012 × 1,478 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(6.1808)
= $483.37

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0910 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(6.0835)
= $438.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0910 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0786)
= Exp(5.7692)
= $320.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.14% per annum.
  • ELV price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.