Centene Corp (CNC)
Centene Corporation is a large publicly traded company and a multi-line managed care enterprise that serves as a major intermediary for both government-sponsored and privately insured health care programs. It is a healthcare insurer that focuses on managed care for uninsured, underinsured, and low-income individuals.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.85% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 9, 2025 was $62.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.00% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2021
End date: May 9, 2025
a = 4.5947
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0866
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0866) – 1
= 41.39%
December 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y402)
= Exp(a + b × X402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0003 × 581 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.6203)
= $101.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y402)
= Exp(a + b × X402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0003 × 581 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.2739)
= $71.80
May 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(4.3049)
= $74.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5947 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0866)
= Exp(3.9585)
= $52.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.85% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 9, 2025 was $62.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 2, 2024
End date: May 9, 2025
a = 5.2396
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0619
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -21.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0619) – 1
= 28.10%
January 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2396 + -0.0006 × 1,330 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(4.5046)
= $90.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2396 + -0.0006 × 1,330 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(4.2569)
= $70.59
May 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2396 + -0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(4.1863)
= $65.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2396 + -0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(3.9386)
= $51.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.00% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of May 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.