Centene Corp (CNC)
Centene Corporation is a large publicly traded company and a multi-line managed care enterprise that serves as a major intermediary for both government-sponsored and privately insured health care programs. It is a healthcare insurer that focuses on managed care for uninsured, underinsured, and low-income individuals.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $60.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.40% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2021
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 4.6009
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0878
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.06%
December 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 621 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.6211)
= $101.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y429)
= Exp(a + b × X429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 621 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.2701)
= $71.53
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.3199)
= $75.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(3.9688)
= $52.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $60.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 2, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 5.3406
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0626
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.44%
January 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3406 + -0.0007 × 1,370 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.5136)
= $91.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3406 + -0.0007 × 1,370 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.2633)
= $71.05
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3406 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.1974)
= $66.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3406 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(3.9471)
= $51.79
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.40% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.