Stock Price Trends

Centene Corp (CNC)

Centene Corporation is a large publicly traded company and a multi-line managed care enterprise that serves as a major intermediary for both government-sponsored and privately insured health care programs. It is a healthcare insurer that focuses on managed care for uninsured, underinsured, and low-income individuals.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
  • CNC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $60.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.36% per annum.
  • CNC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2021
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 4.6009

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0877

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0877) – 1
= 42.03%

December 14, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 620 + 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.6211)
= $101.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y428)
= Exp(a + b × X428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 620 – 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.2702)
= $71.54

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.3194)
= $75.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6009 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(3.9685)
= $52.91

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.73% per annum.
  • CNC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $60.73 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 2, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.3377

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0625

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0625) – 1
= 28.41%

January 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3377 + -0.0007 × 1,369 + 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(4.5133)
= $91.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y942)
= Exp(a + b × X942 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3377 + -0.0007 × 1,369 – 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(4.2633)
= $71.04

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3377 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(4.1970)
= $66.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3377 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(3.9470)
= $51.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.36% per annum.
  • CNC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.