Centene Corp (CNC)
Centene Corporation is a large publicly traded company and a multi-line managed care enterprise that serves as a major intermediary for both government-sponsored and privately insured health care programs. It is a healthcare insurer that focuses on managed care for uninsured, underinsured, and low-income individuals.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.96% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.13% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $15.87 (21.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2021
End date: November 8, 2023
a = 4.8252
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0762
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0762) – 1
= 35.62%
December 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8252 + -0.0004 × 750 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.6447)
= $104.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8252 + -0.0004 × 750 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.3400)
= $76.71
November 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y997)
= Exp(a + b × X997 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8252 + -0.0004 × 1,448 + 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.3349)
= $76.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y997)
= Exp(a + b × X997 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8252 + -0.0004 × 1,448 – 2 × 0.0762)
= Exp(4.0302)
= $56.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.96% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $59.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2023
End date: May 28, 2024
a = 3.7477
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.11%
February 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y804)
= Exp(a + b × X804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7477 + 0.0004 × 1,169 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.2625)
= $70.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y804)
= Exp(a + b × X804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7477 + 0.0004 × 1,169 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.0792)
= $59.10
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7477 + 0.0004 × 1,650 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.4366)
= $84.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7477 + 0.0004 × 1,650 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.2534)
= $70.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.13% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $15.87 (21.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.