Centene Corp (CNC)
Centene Corporation is a large publicly traded company and a multi-line managed care enterprise that serves as a major intermediary for both government-sponsored and privately insured health care programs. It is a healthcare insurer that focuses on managed care for uninsured, underinsured, and low-income individuals.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.38% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $33.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.59 (34.56%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.33% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of July 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $16.21 (32.74%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2021
End date: July 1, 2025
a = 4.5959
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0869
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0869) – 1
= 41.56%
December 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5959 + -0.0003 × 526 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(4.6277)
= $102.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5959 + -0.0003 × 526 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(4.2801)
= $72.25
July 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5959 + -0.0003 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(4.2781)
= $72.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5959 + -0.0003 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(3.9305)
= $50.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.38% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $33.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.59 (34.56%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 2, 2024
End date: July 1, 2025
a = 5.2209
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0601
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0601) – 1
= 27.20%
January 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y879)
= Exp(a + b × X879 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2209 + -0.0007 × 1,275 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.5032)
= $90.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y879)
= Exp(a + b × X879 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2209 + -0.0007 × 1,275 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.2626)
= $71.00
July 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2209 + -0.0007 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.1443)
= $63.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2209 + -0.0007 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(3.9038)
= $49.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.33% per annum.
- CNC price at the close of July 3, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $16.21 (32.74%).